Handicaps. I want my team fighting for my bet.

So, let’s talk real betting, something simple like odds, handicaps, lines, what I like, what I don’t like, so on and so on. So, first of all, I’d like to stress that everything I say is my own opinion and it certainly doesn’t mean that it’s the most correct one and it has to be this way and it’s good for you, for example.

So, it’s all mine, I mean, it’s my opinion, it works for me, it’s the way I like to bet, so here it goes. First of all, I bet basketball, right? So, in basketball, basically, you can bet a favorite and a underdog. So, if I’m talking about underdogs, I like to take as big handicap as possible without sacrificing the odds too much. So, usually, I buy like half a point, almost never, if I can, if it’s possible, I take the half point handicap.

So, for example, plus 7.5 I try not to take, because I would rather take plus 8 or plus 7, depending on the odds. And my logic here is simple, if I can bet, if I can bet two of them, for example, 7.5 and 8, I will always choose 8, because it gives me one point cushion and it just feels safer. And it is safer and it is safer and every point in basketball in the end of the games, it matters, as long as it’s a fair, fair buy.

By buy, I mean, in this case, you buy half a point, the handicap is 7.5 and you buy half a point, usually it’s 0.05, let’s say. If the odds are low to start with, I will try to sell half a point and instead of plus 7.5, I will try to bet plus 7 on much better odds. And sometimes when you’re selling, you can get even better price than 0.05 than when you’re buying. So, my reasoning is simple, plus 7 and plus 7.5 for me are basically the same thing, except when you land exactly on 7.

And if you’re confident in yourself, if your record is good enough, that you know, that you are right most of the times, that you are right more than you are wrong, It means that the probability of landing exactly on 7 is actually lower than landing on less difference, like 6, 5, 4, 3 and so on. If you are somewhat good, if you know that with your record, if you choose to bet the pluses, it means there is a better probability that you are right than you are wrong.

And it means you are wrong, and it means you will most probably more times land on a lesser handicap, on a lesser difference. So, my point is, if you sacrifice this half point, you will not lose other handicaps, which you wouldn’t lose on plus 7.5. So, the only difference is exactly 7. And as I said, the probability of landing on exactly 7 is lower, if you are good at it to start with. And you are getting a much better price. Not much better, but just a better price.

That’s how I decide always, so I try to avoid half point handicaps, just because, on one hand, I can get a much more secure bet. And one point doesn’t seem like a lot, but I believe it is. And the less the handicap is, the more valuable is the point. I mean, plus 2.5 and plus 3, there is a difference.

And in the end game, believe me, in the last minute, that’s a very big difference. Even one point makes a difference. So, I always try to buy that, as long as the odds are good for the buying, right? And on the other hand, I can also sell half a point to get better odds, because I believe in myself. And I will not lose a different bet, I can only push, if it lands on exactly the handicap, but if I’m confident with myself, I believe that the probability of that is lower than what the extra odds I can get.

So, that’s for the underdogs. For the favorites. For the favorites, the story is similar, but it’s also very different. First of all, me, personally, I don’t like handicaps. I do sometimes bet handicaps, minus handicaps, but I just don’t like them. The reason I don’t like them is in the end game, when you bet a handicap, when you bet minus 4.5, minus 6.5, minus 7.5, whatever. However, the players on the field are not fighting for your bet, so to speak. On the other hand, if you bet just money line, if you bet just the win, the players on the field are fighting for you.

They are fighting for the exact same thing. There are, of course, exceptions, when the team has to win by at least a set number of points, for example, to make a better difference and pass to the next round or win a two-game series or something like that. So there are exceptions, of course, and if you know that one team has to win by five points, then if you bet minus 4.5 or minus 5, you know, you know that this team in the end is fighting for you, is fighting for your bet.

So I don’t like this, I don’t like betting minus 3.5 because they don’t care if they win by three points or by five points or by four points. Now, what I do like to bet is money line. Of course, it’s not possible every time. So what are my other options in this case?

If I’m confident, I will take minus 2. Minus 2 exactly, not minus 1.5. If it’s the only option, I will take minus 1.5. If it’s possible, I will sell and I will take minus 2. The reason is also simple. First of all, to win minus 1.5, you still need to win by two. So if you bet minus 2, you get much, not much, but better odds. And you will not lose a different bet from minus 1.5. You still need to win by two.

In this case, you push in two and you win by three. You win if you win by three. So, but my point is, I try, minus 2 is kind of last handicap I try to take. Because, for the same reason as my bigger handicaps. The team is, I want the team on the field in the end to be fighting for me.

Usually, in basketball, the scripts are similar. For example, I mean, the end of game is all scripted, you know. If somebody is winning, somebody is losing, they need to catch up. What they do is, they foul and then try to score quickly. They try to score three ideally and then they foul again and so on and so on. So, that’s how basketball games are played in most of the cases, when the difference is small. So, if the difference is small in the end, when you bet minus 2, your team needs to win by at least 2 for you to at least push.

So, the thing is, in most of the cases, when the team is winning by, let’s say, 1 and there are at least some seconds left, even 3-4 seconds, usually, the other team will try to foul, because they still have a chance, as long as the difference is 1 or 2 points, they have a chance if you, if the other team misses both free throws, they can still score 3 points. They can score 3 points from their own basket, even with 1 second left, it was done many, many times in basketball, and they try it, and why not?

So, what I’m trying to say is, you bet minus 2, for example, your team is winning by 1 point, the other team has the attack, let’s say, last attack, they have 10 seconds. What they do, they will try to hold for the last ball, but they still leave a couple of seconds, if they leave a couple of seconds on the clock, and they don’t shoot with the clock going down to zero. So, they shoot, and they don’t score, and there are 2 seconds left, usually, usually, the team that, your opponent, they will try to foul right away, if they don’t score.

So, even if you are winning by 1 point, you still have a chance to win minus 2, because you have a deal, you have 2-3 throws, right? And this, I’m talking about the extreme case, when there are very, very few seconds left on the clock. For example, if there are more seconds left on the clock, if there are, like, 20 seconds left on the clock, and the team, the opponent team takes the ball in the front court, they have only 14 seconds to attack.

Which means, there will be clock left, in any case, if they win, or if they miss, and don’t get the rebound. So, what they do is, they shoot, they try to leave normally, as less clock on the, as less time on the clock as possible, some coaches may prefer different things, but it doesn’t matter. So, they shoot, they miss, and still have time, and they will foul.

And that’s why, minus 2 is normally the last handicap I take. Because, in most of the cases, you know, it’s just a script, there are, like, thousands of different combinations of play-by-play in the endgame. But my point is, that if your team is winning, and that’s only when it will come into play for you, what you take, minus 1.5, minus 1, money line, or minus 2, for example. If your team is winning, there are certain combinations of what can happen on the floor, and in many of those combinations, the other team will foul, and your team can get 3 points on the board.

And, uh, and winning minus 2 is, uh, very probable, because, even if they are losing, if they, if the other team has minus 3, and 5 seconds on the clock, they shoot, and they will usually foul. It means, you have even more possibility to score points, and that is why, in the cases, when I believe in my team very, very much, I can take even minus 3. That’s the last handicap I try to take.

Normally, it’s minus 2, but minus 3 I take also, exactly for this reason, because when your, when your, your team is up by 3, and there are 5 seconds on the clock, by the book, I mean, by the normal basketball, let’s say, common rules, the other team has to foul, and that’s when your team has two chances to score one more point, one more point that will take you from 2 to 3, and from 3 to 4, or from 3 to 4, and from 4 to 5.

So, minus 3, for me, for me personally, is also an option, but my favorite bet, of course, is minus 1. I always try to take minus 1 over money line, exactly for getting a better odd, or, if the odds are very good to start with, I try to take plus 1.

Exactly for the reason that every point in the end game drastically changes the possibility of a favorable outcome for your bet. Because, because I was talking about good possibilities when the other team misses, and then minus 2 comes into play. But if the other team scores, you can lose by 1, and it happens lots of times, losing by 1, it happens to the better teams, to the worst teams, it doesn’t matter.

Score difference of 1 is very, very frequent in basketball, so, if your team is winning by 2, the other team will try to score 3, and you can lose by 1. And if you take plus 1, you don’t lose by 1, and if you take plus 1, you don’t lose the bet, you push. So, my preference in handicaps for a favorite team are always in this order. Minus 1, minus 1, plus 1, minus 2, minus 0.5, which is money line, then minus 1.5, and only then minus 3, and minus 2.5, if I am really, really confident.

I gave you my reasons, and I believe in them, they may be wrong, but I think they are correct, and they work for me, and that’s what I try to take, and that’s what I wait for in live betting. Live betting, that’s another topic for a different conversation, which is connected to this one, but for the odds, generally, it’s like that.

I try to get a better odds with minus 1, I try to get a better security with plus 1, if I believe quite strongly in my team, minus 2 is my last bet. If the other team is, I know, much, much better, I will take minus 3. I don’t like anything after that.

I just feel that in the end game, they will not care about my bet. I want them to fight for me, that’s why minus 1, plus 1 money line is the best thing. They want the same thing as you. They literally want to win your bet. That’s it for this episode.